EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE VOLUME OF OIL IN PLACE IN MISHRIF RESERVOIR

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Petroleum Refining engineering/ College of Petroleum Urocesses Engineering/ Tikrit university

Abstract

Geostatistical models of the reservoir P90, P50, and P10 must be established for dynamic modeles, analysis of the risk, reservoir management and prediction. Formation volume factors, initial water saturation and formation porosity values might be used to produce a range of values for the reserve via the volumetric method. A reserve requires to be proven when there is a probability of 90% indicating that the recovered quantities in reality are equal or above the estimates. These are typically denoted as P90 throughout the estimating process. P10 refers to the total of potential and probable reserves, and P50 refers to prove and probable reserves. In this research, these quantities were calculated using statistical functions in order to assess the uncertainty in the oil volume. This was done by building a geological model from the data of a group of wells using the Petrel program. Then the uncertainty techniques were used to determine the expected values of the uncertain variables and their corresponding values of oil in place originally (OOIP). The result of OOIP values present that the WOC level is the most influencer parameter on oil in place. A histogram was created with Bins value ranged from 3300 to 3700 and with Bin step equal to 25 and the normal distribution for these Bins were calculated to estimate P10, P50, and P90 values.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Journal of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 04 April 2024

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History

  • Receive Date: 12 March 2024
  • Revise Date: 22 March 2024
  • Accept Date: 27 March 2024

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